Smash Switch Character Prediction
If there is a new Smash Bros game, you have to make character predictions. While most people will focus on an entire roster, I'm going to focus on a few characters that I'm confident on. I learned with the last game that when you try and predict an entire roster, you're going to add a lot of iffy characters and you will be less accurate overall. Last time, out of, say 12-15 characters, I got 3 right. So I'm confident I can get 5. The below are my 5 characters I think will happen and my 1 special mention character (that could or could not happen)
Characters
Spring Man
ARMS is one of Nintendo's biggest series that has come out in recent years. While not a successful as Splatoon, the game has sold well and attracted interest since its initial announcement. Moreoever, Nintendo has promoted the game numerous time in Nintendo Directs (even in the March 3rd 2018 Direct with a tournament, despite content for the game ending). Before its release, the game was featured in a Nintendo Direct and had its own Direct as well. The game also still has regular Party Crashes months after release. Its clear Nintendo put a lot into this title and it would make sense they'd want it in Smash.
Naturally, Spring Man will fit that bill. The stretchy arm gameplay can easily work into a Dhalsim like character, something that hasn't been fully realized in Smash. Moreoever, the extra arms can help to round out his special moves and give him some unique attacks. The character simply offers a lot in terms of gameplay. Additionally, the game can provide a lot of content in the form of music, stages, items and assist trophies. The only argument I've heard against Spring Man is “timing.” However, ARMS was released June of 2017 which will be a year and a half from Smash 5's release. It was announced earlier in January and was likely in alpha in 2016. There no reason this character would miss the boat though I'll speak more on that in another article.
I'll add that there is also a small chance we could see Ribbon Girl as well since both characters are prominently featured on the box and in promotional art. It would be easy enough to design a clone or semi-clone from Spring Man and she has different abilities (and AMRS) from him to make her unique.
Rex and Pyra
Similar to Spring Man, Rex and Pyra are characters from a brand new Switch title that bring unique gameplay potential (having a Driver and a Blade that supports you). Rex and Pyra hail from a pre-established series (Xenoblade). The fact that Xenoblade Chronicles 2 was the direct follow-up to the first game (which was featured in the last game) give them a bit of an edge to get in. Furthermore, the world of Xenoblade Chronicles 2 fits thematically with the first game. It wouldn't be hard to have Gormott be the successor to the Guar Plains stage in the Wii U title. Also, they are pretty popular characters overall, and although their game came out while Smash was being developed, I'm certain Sakurai saw that these characters would resonate with fans (much like characters such as Lucas and Greninja have in the past).
As an aside, one thing it seems like Sakurai does, for whatever reason, is to try and add a duo character. Melee added Ice Climbers. Brawl planned to have Diddy and Dixie as a team (but it was later scrapped). Smash 3DS/Wii U has Rosalina and Luma. I wouldn't be surprised if the fact these characters fight as a pair helped their chances a bit.
Takamaru
Discussion about rules comes up a lot. A lot of the time its nonsense, but there is one rule that remains unbroken: each game gets a classic software character and a classic hardware character. The software characters are Ice Climbers, Pit and Little Mac, where the hardware characters are Mr. Game and Watch, ROB and Duck Hunt. Essentially, Takamaru would fit the software role.
The reason it will be him over another character is his history. The game is considered a sister game to Zelda and is one of the Famicom Disk System games. See, Zelda, Metroid, Kid Icarus and Mysteries of Muramasa Castle were all on the Famicom Disk System in Japan and were released in 1987. This is different in the US as these games were normal carterages and we never got Takamaru's game. However, what's changed is Takamaru's game has been released worldwide on the Nintendo eShop. Moreoever, Takamaru had a game in Nintendo Land. Plus, among fans, this is a character that has been talked about since the Brawl days. Overall, Takamaru makes the most sense for this role.
New Pokemon (Decidueye)
There isn't much to say here as each Smash Brothers game has gotten a new Pokemon character. Pokemon is one of Nintendo's biggest series and has a ton of characters to pull from. Both Brawl and Smash 3DS/Wii U got new Pokemon characters from the most recent games. With Pokemon Sun and Moon coming out after Smash 3DS/Wii U and the next generation of Pokemon not coming out until 2019, a Pokemon from Sun and Moon is almost guarenteed.
As for who, it really depends, but my money is on Decidueye. He's one of the more popular characters. He has a unique type from the other Pokemon (Grass) and it helps to contrast him with Greninja and Charizard. He even has his own Z Move, a special attack introduced in Sun and Moon. He was also featured in Pokken Tournament Deluxe, so it make me more confident that he'll be chosen over other Pokemon. Ash also has a Rowlet in the anime, so there's that.
I should note that while Decidueye makes sense, they could really add any Pokemon to Smash. During Smash 3DS/Wii U, many people though Zoroark would get in as he was similar to Lucario. Decidueye falls a bit into the same trap. People are suggesting him because he is like Greninja. The new Pokemon could be someone like Lycanroc, another popular Pokemon who has also been featured in the anime. That said, I still think Decidueye is the most likely given his typing, Z Move and the fact he appeared in Pokken.
Isabelle
Let me make a bold statement: Isabelle is one of the most popular Nintendo characters not yet in Smash Bros.
First, Animal Crossing is a massive series. New Leaf sold around 11 million copies. There have been two smaller titles released since Smash 4 (Happy Home Designer and Pocket Camp). And who is the face of that series: Isabelle. Take a look at the Animal Crossing twitter account. It's not just the Animal Crossing twitter but it's Isabelle's Twitter. She's all over the place. She is also seen all over the place in Nintendo's advertisements and she's the face of many of the series's games, being featured on the box. Not to mention making a cameo appearance in Mario Kart 8. In terms of Nintendo characters not yet in Smash, she's one of the most recognizable. I think that fact will carry her to being a new Smash Bros character.
Breath of the Wild Champion
Of all of Nintendo's major series, The Legend of Zelda has gotten the short of the stick in terms of characters. After Smash 3DS/Wii U, the series has fewer characters than the far smaller series, Fire Emblem (something that has become a major contention with fans). Despite not adding a new character, Smash 4 included 3 new assist trophies (Midna, Skull Kid and Ghirahim) as well as numerous new items from the series. So Zelda hasn't gotten completely snuffed, but it hasn't gotten a character. And new Zelda characters has been something fans have been hoping for for a while. For example, in the Rate Thier Chances thread on Smashboards, users rated their “Want” for a New Zelda Character at 74% (out of 100). Demand is there.
The argument is that Zelda characters are only around in a game or two, but this hasn't stopped Fire Emblem from getting a lot of one-off characters. I think the difference is the Zelda characters are often side-characters rather than the main character. With the series in decline since Ocarina of Time, the side characters have been glossed over. Keep in mind that we still have Sheik despite that character only appearing in Ocarina of Time.
However, this changed with Breath of the Wild. The titles is one of the most successful Zelda games ever. Better yet, the titles has a few viable and recognizable characters: the Champions. These characters can easily draw from the weapons in Breath of the Wild as each one has a type associated with them (so they don't have to be crammed into Link's moveset). Moreover, the Champions have received amiibo and had DLC dedicated to them.
As for who will get it, it will likely be Mipha, Urbosa or Daruk. Mipha is the most popular, represents the Zora, and her healing and spear bring something that isn't present in Smash. Urbosa is also popular, has lighting, and can use sword moves that link doesn't have yet (like parry and furry attacks). Daruk's can use the heavier weapons, his protection ability and represents the Goron, a common race in the games.
Closing
In conclusion, the characters I'm expecting are Spring Man, Rex and Pyra, Takamaru, Decidueye (or another Pokemon from Sun and Moon) and Isabelle. I also think there is a good chance a Champion from Breath of the Wild will get in, but it's something I'm less sure about. Here is how I would rank them.
Sun/Moon Pokemon
Spring Man
Takamaru
Rex and Pyra
Isabelle
Decidueye
BoTW Champion
Thanks for reading!
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